Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Sub-Prime Crisis

Over the past several weeks everybody has been hit by this global economic crisis. If not financially then definitely mentally (like us). This tectonic financial crisis has captured the attention of people all over the world. Well if your 160 year old company is about to go bust (read Lehman Brothers) then you better panic!

Investors across the world are in total panic. People are losing their hard earned money, established banks and companies are becoming bankrupt, stock markets and currencies are plummeting. Scary situation! Definitely scarier than Ram Gopal Verma Movies at least! So what exactly is this whole thing? And how does it affect us in India? I attempt to address this here, in my new post.

The origins of today’s crisis lie in the progressively digressing US Government policies. Over the last 5 to 6 years, the US administration has successfully rescinded well-placed restrictions and safeguards in the banking and market sector. Regulations regarding granting of loans or restrictions on banks becoming share market speculators have been removed. Any Tom, Dick or Harry can obtain a loan in the US which he otherwise would not have been eligible for. Also there is little control on hedge fund investment companies and this kind of investment can become multi-fold.

Thus as a result, low income (i.e. sub-prime) US households borrowed heavily from banks to buy homes, etc. and then started defaulting on their payments. Then the house prices dropped. So the value of the purchased property decreased and any hopes of positive returns were squashed. This coupled with the inherent tendency or attribute of eating more than they can chew, living beyond their means resulted in compounding defaults on their debt obligations.

Here are few statistics to make it crystal clear. The ratio of outstanding loan to GDP in India is about 60%. Kindly indulge your mind in working some of those Grey cells and make a wild guess about the corresponding figure in the US!

75%, 90%, 95% or 99.999% ? Guys and Gals you hit way below the target! This figure is a staggering and mind boggling 330% in the US and about 240% in the UK! This means their respective GDPs are virtually non existent and feed almost completely on these loans. Thus the sub-prime housing loan market in the US is huge at about 1.4 Trillion $.

Now Wall Street’s Geeks (shrewd and cunning geeks however) repackaged these loans into a very complicated entity called CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) and sold these entities to various European and American Banks and financial corporations. This feature is known as the Hedging. It's simple: Suppose I lend you Rs. 100. Now I will sell this loan to a third-party hedge fund for Rs. 90. They in turn will sell it to some one else for Rs.85 and so on. The complexity lies in the calculations of profit and other percentages on these assets. These hedge Fund companies expect huge profit on these instruments in the future. But there is a glitch, a serious and glaring pitfall. What if these housing loans turn bad? The instruments based on them would then lose value. That is what has exactly happened. The defaults on US house loans started increasing and as result CDO prices stated tumbling. Falling prices made the portfolios of the banks ugly and eroded the banks' capital to a large extent thus affecting liquidity.

Also it is interesting to note that banks do not have all the ready cash that they distribute as credit. The inter-bank lending serves the purpose of getting cash-surplus and cash-deficit banks together and fuels the process of giving loans, lending money, etc. to individual consumers (to buy cars, white goods) and also to corporations (working capital,etc.) With increasing market uncertainty banks become suspicious and the inter-bank loan rates are affected. In the past few weeks the inter-bank loan rates have risen from around 3% to about 7%! With no one willing to buy anything the whole situation has become frightening. All over the world inter-bank markets have become frozen and liquidity in the market has taken a toll.

To address this problem the US Government is putting in about $700 billion as a bailout plan. They will buy these bad loans from the banks and improve the cash-flow in the market. Interest rate will be reduced. But remember that it has no Money Tree or a treasure hove, but the money ultimately comes from the tax-payers pocket! In India the apex bank, RBI is trying to address this problem by reducing the CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) and thus increase the liquidity in the Inter-Bank market.

We in India are slightly cushioned against a very catastrophic financial adversity because our domestic markets are pretty large and secondly because our banks are not exposed to these CDO business to a large extent. According to ICICI and other Indian Banks their institutions are cash-rich and can wade through these troubled times. (I hope it is true!!!) But ultimately Indian Companies have become more global than before and therefore the global economic meltdown in bound to affect our sanctimonious markets. Tatas acquired a host of companies in recent years. This meltdown is surely going to burn a hole in their pockets! Corus would be laughing hysterically right now. They got out with their money and it is the Tatas who now face the acid test!

A large number of Indian sectors might face problems, market pundits believe. This includes hotels, software, some outsourcing services, real estate, infrastructure, construction, banking, stock broking, mutual funds, and to some extent air travel. Hotels, mainly those in big cities that cater to business travelers, are largely dependent upon foreign tourists. In India, most foreign tourists are from the UK, followed by the US. Moreover, the October-December period is peak travel time and the impact could be higher on hotels because the pace of blow-ups in the US has recently peaked.

The software industry, one of India's largest export-earners, is almost certain to be affected. The industry earns more than 60% of its revenue from the US and the recent spate of closures and mergers will mean the trimming of various software-related services, analysts believe. It could be a mixed bag for the BPO sector. While some BPOs, which were heavily dependent on the BFSI sector, could see their fortunes dwindling, some high-end BPOs with substantial cost advantage could see more business coming their way.

The real estate sector, which was booming just a few months ago, could be affected in a major way. Industry players predict that real estate companies could suffer because of high property prices, high interest rates, and lower demand from IT-BPO companies and reduced availability of speculative funds because of bad stock market conditions. A slowing real estate sector could also lead to a slowdown in the construction industry. This in turn is likely to affect the cement and steel sectors. The construction industry could also suffer from a slowdown when it comes to new projects.

The US crisis and the resulting slowdown in India are also expected to weaken the Indian Rupee. It touched 49 Rs. to a Dollar yesterday! This in turn would mean a higher oil-import bill. With almost no scope to adjust prices, companies selling petroproducts are likely to be hit. Stockbrokers too are expected to suffer as the market slides, volume of trade dwindles and speculators vanish from Dalal Street. Big players and brokers with deep pockets could survive the tough times, but the smaller ones may be forced either to fold up or sell out, market veterans say. Also because the Rupee gets weaker, the software companies and other firms which earn in dollars will benefit from the stronger dollar as there net earning might increase and this might balance the reduction in business. Also petroleum prices are falling so the weakening of Rupee would not have a drastic impact. The assurances of our PM to achieve a GDP growth of 7% are hence pragmatic and not illusionary.

So this, my friends is the whole thing. I sincerely hope that you find this post informative. And as far ass the economic problem is concerned let our Dads worry, we better worry about our submissions and exams!

Friday, October 10, 2008

Writing Nightmare...Literally

Evil, Devil, Sinful, Wicked, Criminal, Nefarious, Depraved, Iniquitous, Pernicious...

Alright Guys and Gals you don't need a dictionary nor those filthy little things called flash cards - which have now become a yardstick to measure your chances of flying to ('Oh... I am losing my Money which I never really had') America. As I was saying, all these words are really easy to understand, comprehend and then remember if you happen to know our math professor! Yes, this person is the epitome of all the above adjectives!

Over the last night I have burned the midnight oil, left no stone unturned, to finish what everybody calls a ASSignment. Man I have written so much that I feel I have become a sort of Human Printer...HP should start a new series...


Vaidya Series!...Fast printers to solve all your ASSignment troubles...Just provide all the material and it will be copied word to word, letter to letter, angle to angle to angle, line to line, etc as fast as lightning.

The only solace was my little iPod which dutifully kept playing songs to keep me company in those unearthly hours! Last night's playlist on my iPod contained a staggering 111 songs...ok Dickie Bird can do his dance (the English umpire and not my dear friend mind you) for reasons known to him alone (I doubt whether he is aware of the reason himself). Even the ghosts were afraid of me yesterday night. They told me that they were previously of the opinion that Humans don't really exist and are only a fictional creation to scare them. But now I have removed their doubts. They were petrified. I tried inquiring whether they knew of someone amongst them who taught at VJTI but they answered in the negative. They said the only person they know is Ram Gopal Verma, the comedian.

I think my fingers and my arms emit a weird mechanical sound every time they start to write. They must ban this torture. This is worst than third degree torture. It is more like a 14,567 degree torture. Apply this to Abu Salem or anyone equally (in)famous and they will be blurting out all the secrets and all the information you need! And it does not end here...Part two was officially launched today!

I really wonder how much paper, ink, pencil carbon(it is not lead-plumbum), etc. we waste in our four years of Engineering! Collect all this stuff ( journal, assignment, tutorial) of this college and distribute it amongst the US Banks. They will make an amazing amount of money out of scrap(Raddi) and they wont need a 700 billion dollar bail-out!

HaHa Ha - Why so serious!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Passing of an Enigma...The End of an Era




There are the Maestros,
There are the Dons,
and then
There is Dada !



The prince of Calcutta, The God of the Off-Side, The Royal Bengal Tiger,... ; the epithets for Sourav 'Dada' Ganguly are diverse and numerous. But the writing on the wall is just one...'This really is the last series you are going to see the phenomenon, the master, the persona par excellence, in action on field! He might still oblige Rukh-Rukh Khan in the second edition of IPL.


It has been a rough ride for Sourav all the way along...


The Boy from Behala made his debut in 1992, in the ODI series in Australia but was shockingly given the boot after just one failure(vs WI). He emerged four years later, literally from the ashes and purely on fantastic domestic performances but a smear campaign was started by his back trackers claiming that he was in the team courtesy Jagmohan Dalmiya.



Dada answered by scoring a blazing hundred on (Test) Debut versus England at the famous Lords. Anyone daring to say that this was just a flash in the pan had to wait for only a few more days. Dada followed this with another hundred at Nottingham! A star was born and there was no denying it.

As his career progressed Indian Cricket had regressed under the captaincy of Mohammad Azaruddin and even Sachin could not change it when he took over the reins as Captain and that too twice. Then the match-fixing scandal rocked Indian cricket and India was at it's Nadir!

In such adverse times the board offered the captaincy to Ganguly and the rest as they say is history! The space in this blog falls short to mention all the histrionics, achievements and records of this great man; so i will say this one thing only : India was metamorphosed into a fighting, confident and aggressive unit capable of beating anyone anywhere due to this one man alone!!!

While grace and timing were the hallmarks of Sourav Ganguly's cricket, I am not sure whether this sudden decision to ride into the sunset was true to those qualities. But such is the situation in Indian Cricket. It does not help if you have been the most consistent performer in Tests for over two seasons! You still have to prove yourself constantly. This is what happens when non-cricketing, money and power hungry politicians become the powers-that-be and control the BCCI

I cannot write more because my eyes well-up...but Dada, We always loved you and we always will!

I am of the strong opinion that Sourav will end his career on a high as he is the kind of man who never goes down without a fight! Go Dada Go...Give the aussies and the idiots in BCCI a piece of your mind and score runs by the ton. And even if you do end up scoring a hundred in every match of the series do not look back because you donot deserve to be in this quagmire...u deserve better...BCCI President!

Saturday, September 20, 2008

Finally...9 Point Someone !

Chetan Bhagat is frantically pacing the confines of his office! He is in total disarray! His secretary just broke him the news...


There is a 9 Point Someone in town! And he is going to give them tough competition! Rumours have it that the new book, which this mystery man is going to write is going to be a total blockbuster! And of course it is not titled '9 Point Someone' ! It is going to be called... ' Finally...9 Point Someone !'


The author of this blog ( that must be me, i think) takes pride in announcing that he knows this 9 Point (Sum)One! Well the entire Electronics department knows him of course. And much of VJTI also! He is Electronics' answer to Electricals' Vipul; with respect to his gastric indulgences! We shall now see the birth ...the death... and the final Resurrection of his 9 Pointer!



So Mr. 9 Pointer slogs hard but ends up with a non 9 pointer! Sad situation. A few tears flow, a heart is broken;possibly two hearts :P and the appetite must have been disturbed. But the Strong Man that he is Mr. 9 Pointer ploughs through it all. Now a few days back he was dealt with a sudden blow! That blow hit many a fellow students. The grades of a certain subject called BCOM were automatically modified though many had not requested such indulgences from the Exam Section at VJTI.

Coming back to the blow: it was a really bad one if u were on the wrong side of it! If your grades showed an upward trend then u were obviously delighted and would be trying to do the Salsa and Tango at the same time, but otherwise u felt like burning the place down!

Our 9 Pointer thankfully landed on the right side of the curve! This was long due for his hard work and it was totally a correct revision in his case. The Controller of this (In)famous department is a very naive controller! But it is wrong to judge by appearances. Despite his expression, which was that of a yokel having a sudden bright idea, and his mode of speech, which might put u in mind of a small, breathless, neurotic but ridiculously expensive dog, he might well have been a kind, generous and sincere man!

So Mr. 9 pointer was basking in the glory of his achievement or rather trying not to bask in the pervasive glory of his achievement which he kept saying was a case of Sreesanth getting lucky and actually giving less than 20 runs in an over; we friends knew better. He was trying to be modest!

But believe me being a 9 Pointer is not as simple as people think. At least, it is not simple if your ambitions include being a 9 Pointer tomorrow as well! Well the most unlucky incident took place just hours after his coronation as a 9 Pointer! The very important document called Marksheet ( previously supplied on a sheet of paper which would make even a roadside bhelpuri-waala to laugh out in mockery) which clearly stated his promotion to the League Of 9 Pointers was stripped of him suddenly! They said it was erroneous and would be corrected! Thus was the birth and demise of his 9 Pointer!

The next morning the Same Section again asked us to collect our marksheets. They were almost same as given before and we wondered whether the Section found no anomalies or it was just plane bored! Thus saw the resurrection of his 9 Pointer!

This Resurrection was more critical and dramatic than even the resurrections happening in the K serials ! 9 Point Someone was thrilled and finally heaved a sigh of relief so strong that it could have blown a 51, 54 and 67 Kg boxer back to Beijing!

And now the footnote:
Hyundai has Shahrukh (Rukh Rukh) Khan, Toyota have Aamir, Chevrolet has Saif and Logan has Kunal Kapoor, etc. Wondered why Honda haven't signed up anyone yet? Yes u Guessed it right, they were waiting for the biggest celebrity of the year: Our Very Own, 'Finally...9 Point Someone'. Grapevine has it that his household had promised to buy him a Honda City if he broke into the League of 9 Pointers and only an i10 for anything other than a 9! So we are all waiting for a drive in ur car, Mr. 9 Point Someone!


P.S. : The author offers a brand new iphone for anyone correctly guessing the real identity of our illustrious '9 Point Someone'. While reading the previous sentence you must keep in mind that the author is completely mad. Please leave your comments and guess the identity of our celebrity!

Monday, August 18, 2008

India In The Midst Of Another Marvellous Series!

The colors changed from white to blue but India's Batting Blues continued!

So much for pre-match hype and the rhetoric that went with it. The second ball of the match had the Sri Lankans dancing, the Indians crying and most importantly most of us students glued to the headphones of our dear mobile phones cursing , screeching and abusing all at the same time. On top of it many of these innocent spectators (albeit only through the Ears) were expected to pay attention in their lectures or perform a dumb experiment in their labs. After all Gautam Gambhir had his stumps scuttled and India's ONLY BATSMAN had fallen. Sorry, I just made a statistical error. There is ONE MORE BATSMAN in the Indian Team but he has conveniently twisted his ankle and is now out of the series! I am referring to Sehwag and not the original Master Blaster as the latter has currently forgotten how to bat! (And has a different injury)

Yuvraj Singh had gone on record saying that he is confident of achieving success against the spinners. Be it Mendis or Murali he was going to clonk them over the ropes. He was talking sense but he just forgot to mention the duration of his stay on the wicket. He proved his worth by scoring a blazing 23 and then falling like a loser to his nemesis-Ajantha! If he takes a break from his prime purpose of life i.e. wooing bollywood beauties who ultimately don't give him a damn; and instead concentrates on his cricket then maybe that eternal boorish smug on his face will have a valid reason.

Now coming to India's captain-Dhoni saab apka jawab nahi. This guy is the most diplomatic person in Indian Cricket. His comment before the series, and I quote, "The Test Series Loss should not be blamed on the Seniors", was a very witty comment. After all his team consisting of the Young Brigade was going to do equally bad if not worse! Sachin ko gaali dene se kya matlab jab Dhoni saab khudh itna achha perform karne waale the! He almost got a hundred but was only 94 runs short!

The most interesting event took place in the dressing rooms between the two innings! After India had toiled to reach three figures and post a imposing target of 147 in 50 overs, Mahela Jayawardena made an offer to Dhoni. He asked Dhoni if India was willing to concede the match at that point of time. Because there seemed to him no point to continue the play as everyone knew which captain was going to walk up to the host first during the presentation ceremony. Anyways everyone knows who is winning when opponents are India and Sri Lanka have Mendis in their 11. The real reason was he didn't want to miss his favourite serial on TV. It is probably the Sri Lankan version of our own K serials and has a repeat tellycast in the afternoon.

But then the veteran and the true sportsman, aka Marauda Bomber-Jayasuriya came and started scolding Mahela for tarnishing the spirit of the game! He accused Mahela of underestimating the Indians and also tarnishing the image of Sri Lankans as true sportsmen. He said that Mahela had brought shame on Sri Lankan Cricket by even suggesting this.

He had a different offer. A novel and respectful solution which would give India a fair chance! He offered to bat Right Handed! Yes u read right, Sanath said that he would go out in the middle and bat Right Handed so that the match would last another 30 overs atleast or else it would have ended by over number 15 itself. At this point someone from the Indian team corrected him and said that because Shreesanth was not playing the match would have ended in 20 and not 15 overs. Sanath just smiled!

Well bottomline - India Lost! Haha! Looking on the positive side, Sri Lanka took 35 overs (Sanath was not allowed to be generous) and the margin was 8 and not 10 wickets! India started this tour on no.2 position in International Rankings, but looks like they are going to end up at no.7!

I have stopped watching these fracases and I hope many will follow suit! This will save a lot of Electricity as the T.V.'s will be switched off!

Bbye and do leave your comments!

Saturday, March 29, 2008

The day i broke a signal...!!!

The scene...
Vaidya Ameya driving his car down Tilak Bridge, Dadar. The song on the radio changes from Khwaja Mere Khwaja to Numb...Linkin Park and almost automatically the car changes gear from second to fourth! Of course there was a intermediate transition to third gear! Alright... Vaidya Ameya doesn't see the signal at Plaza...must have been the glares he is wearing. but the traffic inspector ahead makes sure that Vaidya Ameya sees him! Well what now, no choice but to comply with the orders to take the car to the left. I always feel odd when i see a traffic police signal a car to veer to the left...the antics they do...they could beat Billy Bowden and Shreesanth combined!!! Probably it has something to do with the excitement they feel on having ensnared a victim. Well i had a strong urge to veer to the right rather than left but then my mind clicked on and the gears started working after about a millennium to cook up a defense!

I immediately remembered the Ad on TV where a similarly affected kid calls his dad and you know the rest....But i realized quickly that my dad would not really be enthused to be part of this ridiculous plan!

By this time the traffic police was almost face to face with me. I quickly got out and before i could initiate a cordial talk he quickly read out...Veermata Jijabai tocnologcel intute...he couldn't read the entire thing on the thing hanging from my neck! then he looked me over...and was convinced that he had a prized catch for the day! A college kid with a car and no license! Hehe Haha..he was wrong...he didn't know who he had on his hands that day. Although i had broken the signal, U see i am innocent unless proven guilty!
He started off by asking my name...after getting the little details he asked his prized question... लाईसेन्स आहे का?
And he was more than stumped when i answered in the affirmative! Well one point i would like to make...that piece of legal document which gives you the right to drive vehicles in town is always easily obtained from my wallet on normal days but today it took so long for me to locate it that for a moment i thought that i had lost or misplaced it! The good side was that my tormentor's hopes were inflated before being quickly flattened when i managed to find the document called DRIVING LICENSE
Then i pulled off an ace by explaining that i had gotten off on a orange and then was slowed down due to an old aunty crossing the road. He wouldn't fall for it but i still persisted. I think i would have made an excellent lawyer the way i convinced him that i was not at fault! I have never talked so sweetly to anyone in my life.
You guys and gals would be amazed that i came out of the ordeal without an offense registered against my name and also more importantly without shelling out a rupee as bribe!!!! I barely had 50 bucks anyway!